The Great Mental Models (Part 1)

Books · Self-Management

Created by Rishabh Srivastava

This summary was largely done for my own note-taking, sharing it just in case it adds more value to other people.

I have no affiliation whatsoever with anyone in this note. This is a summary largely taken for my own reference, and may contain errors :)

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Summary

The quality of your thinking depends on the models in your head

I. The Map is not the Territory

The map of reality is not reality.

A map may gave structure similar or dissimilar to the structure of the territory. The London Underground map is super useful to travelers. The train drivers don’t use it at all. Maps describe a territory in a useful way, but with a specific purpose – they can’t be everything to anyone.

In abstracting a map, something is lost in the process. If we consume an abstraction as gospel, without having done the hard mental work, we can ignore really important indicators

“But my GPS didn’t show that cliff”

In order to use a map or model accurately, we should take 3 considerations into account:

1. Reality is the ultimate update

Territories change, sometimes faster than the maps that describe them. We should update maps based on our actual experience in the territory

2. Consider the cartographer

Maps are not purely objective creations. What was the cartographer trying to achieve? How does this influence what is depicted on the map?

3. Maps can influence territories

People often make decisions based on the map, which can lead to a change in territory.

II. Circle of Competence

When ego and not competence drives what we undertake, we have blind spots. If you know what you understand, you know where you have an edge over others

What is a circle of competence?

True knowledge of a complex territory cannot be faked. As long as you operate in your circle of competence, you’ll always have a better understanding of reality to use in making decisions. This increases efficiency – you can eliminate bad choices quickly because you’ve seen all pieces of the puzzle

How do you know when you have a circle of competence?

Within our circle of competence, we know exactly what we don’t know. We’re able to make decisions quickly and relatively accurately. We possess detailed knowledge of additional information we might need to make a decision with full understanding, or even what information is unobtainable. We know what is knowable and what is unknowable and can distinguish between the two.

A circle of competence cannot be built quickly.

A little learning is a dangerous thing, Drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring: There shallow droughts intoxicate the brain, And drinking largely sobers us again

How do you build and maintain a circle of competence?

You can never take a circle of competence for granted. You can’t operate as if it’s a static thing, that once attained is attained for life. knowledge gets updated, and so too must your circle

3 practices needed to build and maintain circle of competence:

  • Curiosity and desire to learn
    • Learning comes when experience meets reflection. Learning everything on your own is costly and slow. Learning from experience of others (books, courses, mentorship) is much more productive
  • Monitoring
    • Monitor your track record honestly so you have good signal
  • Feedback
    • Keeping a journal of your own performance is the easiest and most private way to give self-feedback
    • What went wrong? What went right?
    • Occasionally solicit external feedback (coaching/mentorship)

III. First Principles Thinking

Reason from first principles by separating the underlying ideas or facts from any assumptions based on them. What remain are essentials.

Techniques for establishing first principles:

Socratic Questioning

  1. Clarify your thinking and explain the origins of your ideas (Why do I think this? What exactly do I think?)
  2. Challenge assumptions (How do I know this is true? What if I thought the opposite?)
  3. Look for evidence (How can I back this up? What are the sources?)
  4. Consider alternative perspectives (What might others think? How do I know I am correct?)
  5. Examine consequences and implications (What if I am wrong? What are the consequences if I am?)
  6. Questioning the original questions (Why did I think that? Was I correct? What conclusions can I draw from the reasoning process?)

Five Whys

If someone ends up with “because I said so” or “it just is”, you know that you’ve landed on an assumption that may be based on popular opinion, cultural myth, or dogma.

Why follow these methods?

Both of these methods slow us down in the short term. But can help us blow past inaccurate assumptions.

They can also help propel us towards paradigm shifts, when people entrenched in the status quo are only making incremental innovations

IV. Thought Experiment

Use thought experiments to examine what can be known.

V. Second-Order Thinking

Think farther ahead and more holistically. This can help us ensure that we prioritise long-term interests over immediate gains/losses.

Caveat against this: it can lead to both analysis paralysis and overconfidence in our predictions for the future

VI. Probabilistic Thinking

Beware of fat-tailed curves and information asymmetries (i.e., the chances that your probation estimates may not be any good)

VII. Inversion

Approach a problem from the opposite end of the natural starting point. Most of us think one way about a problem: forward. Inversion is flipping the problem and working backwards

German mathematician Carl Jacobi became famous for starting with the endpoint. When faced with proving a difficult axiom, he might instead assume a property of the axiom was correct and then try to determine the consequences of this assumption

What are you trying to avoid? Instead of thinking through how to achieve a positive outcome, ask yourself how you could achieve a terrible outcome – and use that to guide your decision making

VIII. Occam’s Razor

Commit to the explanation that makes the fewest assumptions.

If 2 competing models both have equal explanatory power, it’s more likely that the simple solution suffices

IX. Hanlon’s Razor

Don’t attribute to malice what can be better explained by incompetence. This helps us avoid paranoia and ideology